Priyanka Gandhi Vadra hogged the limelight for the final 4 days in Uttar Pradesh — getting detained in Sitapur en path to Lakhimpur, sweeping the ground on the visitor home there amidst a spate of interviews, reaching Lakhimpur with Rahul Gandhi, sweeping the ground in a Valmiki locality on Friday and a mega rally is now deliberate in PM Narendra Modi‘s constituency Varanasi on Sunday.
Some might even see it as hope for revival of the Grand Outdated Social gathering (GOP) in Uttar Pradesh, however the BJP doesn’t appear to actually thoughts this heightened political area for Priyanka in Uttar Pradesh. This, in reality, appears more and more a concerted technique of the BJP to make Priyanka ‘appear to be an element’ whereas the most important political opponents of the BJP within the state, the Samajwadi Social gathering and Mayawati’s BSP, dismiss Priyanka and the Congress as a “non-factor” with no voter base in UP.
The actual fact is that higher castes and Muslims have voted for the Congress in some measure in 2014, 2017 and 2019 in UP, however not in sufficient numbers to assist the celebration make an influence. The current political area being ceded to the Congress appears a BJP effort to make sure that a few of its personal higher caste voters in UP who’re upset with the BJP for varied causes don’t find yourself voting for SP or BSP, however go for the Congress. Identical goes for stopping the consolidation of Muslim votes.
UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in an interplay with News18 UP on Friday requested why opposition leaders, together with from the BSP, had not visited households of the “Brahmin males” who have been killed within the Lakhimpur violence. His remark on the similar interplay on Priyanka sweeping the ground in Sitapur, that the “public has lowered her to that”, has prompted the Congress to now launch a state-wide marketing campaign, alleging that Dalits and ladies have been humiliated by the CM.
कांग्रेस महासचिव श्रीमती @priyankagandhi जी ने इंदिरा नगर की दलित बस्ती पहुंच कर झाड़ू लगाकर श्रमदान किया।झाड़ू लगाना स्वाभिमान और सादगी का प्रतीक है। इस स्वाभिमान और सादगी का मजाक उड़ाने वाले अपनी दलित विरोधी सोच को उजागर करते हैं। pic.twitter.com/y5H4ku4c9P
— Congress (@INCIndia) October 8, 2021
Nevertheless, the SP and the BSP each appear to have been left behind within the Lakhimpur episode, and a few leaders in these events even allege a ‘mounted match’ between the BJP and the Congress, declaring how Priyanka was allowed to proceed until Sitapur on Monday whereas Akhilesh was not even allowed to maneuver out of his residence that day.
However will an emboldened Congress additionally harm the BJP in UP or solely find yourself hurting the probabilities of the SP and BSP come 2022 elections?
A Lesson in Historical past
Priyanka entered politics as the overall secretary in-charge of UP within the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, full with a giant highway present in Lucknow with Rahul Gandhi. The SP-BSP-RLD fought the election in an alliance, with the Congress preventing individually. The opposition alliance may win solely 15 out of the 80 seats whereas the Congress even misplaced the Amethi seat of Rahul Gandhi. Sonia Gandhi received the Rae Bareli seat.
A key statistic from these elections, nonetheless, did catch the BJP’s eye. The Congress appeared to have presumably costed the SP-BSP-RLD alliance a win in practically 10 Lok Sabha seats because the profitable margins of the BJP candidates on these seats have been lower than the votes polled by the Congress candidates.
So, although the Congress had simply received one seat and misplaced deposits on 3/4th of the seats it fought on, it dented the opposition alliance the place it harm essentially the most — in garnering essential votes.
Priyanka did contend through the marketing campaign in these elections that her celebration would both win a seat it was contesting or hurt the BJP, however figures belied the claims.
In 2017 Meeting elections, Rahul Gandhi tried a giant plan to enhance upon the celebration’s 28-seat efficiency in 2012 elections and a state-wide Khat Yatra was accomplished earlier than Balakot strikes occurred, following which the Congress stitched an alliance with the Samajwadi Social gathering. The Congress dropped to simply seven seats in these polls.
In UP, the strongest challenger to the BJP by way of organisation, the Samajwadi Social gathering, appears ‘laid-back’ whereas the weakest challenger with little community on the bottom, the Congress, appears essentially the most aggressive. It’s not like the case in, say Bihar, the place the RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav was a mix of ‘organisation and aggression’ and ran the BJP-JDU shut in elections however misplaced out as a result of his ally Congress’ poor efficiency.
The UP opposition lacks a Tejashwi Yadav type of mixture and Priyanka could but once more show to be an X-factor for the BJP within the 2022 elections.